Toodyay, WA plus

Still mostly in holiday mode here, but a few of items of note...

1. At least 37 homes have been destroyed in a bushfire, apparently ignited by a fallen power pole.in Toodyay, WA, approximately 80 km northeast of Perth. The fire started around noon yesterday (29 Dec) and has burnt over 2900 ha. Nearby observations suggest that fire weather conditions were 'catastrophic', with max temperatures in the low 40s, RH below 10% and 40 km/h sustained winds. Cloudy conditions prevented a satellite view of the fire.

2. Just before Xmas saw a significant bushfire near Pt Lincoln, SA. 13 homes and a State Emergency Service base amongst other things were destroyed in the 650 ha blaze. Hot (43C), dry windy conditions prevailed.

3. The rise and fall of TC Laurence has proceeded mostly in line with the general scenario outlined around 2 weeks ago...Lingered in the Pilbara before striking an eastward path across the country, culminating in a large rain event in NSW. The storm made three (I think) landfalls and the subsequent re-intensifications reached category 5 on two occasions. Significant rain in the Pilbara, across northern SA and into NSW. Northeastern NSW in particular saw a good deal of precipitation, although 50+ mm were widespread in the eastern part of the state.

This rain should dampen the fire danger in those areas for at least a week or two anyway. In the north, maybe enough to end the season? More rain in the near future would help this a reality...Northern SA saw a wet Spring, particularly November. These normally arid regions could see a 'green up' in the coming seasons, potential fuel for next year's bushfire season.

Northern Australia and more

The image (click to enlarge) shows the whole of Australia (sorry, TAS!) on 19 October 2009. The image is a composite of three MODIS images from successive overpasses of the Aqua, each at roughly 1300-1500 LT at the time the satellite is overhead. The hotspots indicate numerous areas of fire across the nation, particularly in the north.

The upper hand has been gained over much of the fire activity recently seen in QLD and northern NSW. High temperatures have moderated and afternoon humidity is not quite as low thanks to moderate easterly (onshore) winds. The widespread cumulus field extending inland shows this quite nicely. This has allowed fire fighters in NSW to gain control over most of the fires there. A few isolated hotspots are visible along the northern coast.

While many of the fires burning in QLD are now contained, the situation still remains dangerous. The Mt Archer fire near Rockhampton is still threatening homes and keeping residents on high alert. While the weather has moderated, fire bans remain in effect for much of the state through to next week.

The Top End region of the NT remains quite active. Numerous fires are visible throughout Arnhem Land. A particularly active cluster of hotspots, with a thick smoke plume, is noted in the southwestern Top End, west of Port Keats. Further south from there several large fires are also visible; these fires haven't been burning for a great length of time but have quite prominent fire scars in their wake. Breezy afternoon easterly winds, low RH and hot temperatures (upper-30s) have driven very high to extreme fire dangers across the area.

Much of the Kimberley region of northwestern WA remains quite active also. While the threat to the outskirts of Broome has receded, the fires have continued to burn in the area. Most of these are new fires, not continuations of those noted previously. The same is true in the northern part of the Kimberley; five or six large clusters of hotspots are burning. The fires further south, in the Great Sandy Desert also continue to burn. As in the NT, the air has been quite dry with moderate easterly winds.

For the eagle-eyed, some signs of activity are visible in the southern part of the country. A commercial orchard has been reported as destroyed in southwestern WA. The NASA Earth Observatory image of the day noted some thick smoke plumes in this area on the 16^th. Looking back at the subsets, smoke is visible back until at least the 13^th...A few hotspots and perhaps a thin smoke plume is visible today. Most likely these would be some sort of prescribed burning activity. Another prescribed burn is visible along the NSW/VIC border in the Moira Lake area. Another (likely) prescribed fire can also been seen in SA in Billiat Conservation Park, with hotspots and a thin plume of smoke.

Bushfires today in SE Australia

Several bushfires have been noted in SE Australia today, Fires were noted in northern Tasmania, the Adelaide Hills and northeast Victoria.

The largest fire is the Tasmanian blaze. It has been contained as of this evening, after burning near 2500 ha. The weather isn't too bad as far as fire activity goes. Temperatures were near 20, relative humidity was high and winds weren't particularly strong. Fuel loads may be quite high though, allowing for a more intense fire. An Aqua MODIS image of the area from this afternoon is shown below.

A fire also ignited this afternoon in the Adelaide Hills, near Belair. People were evacuated and water bombers were called into to bring the blaze under control. 27 ha were burnt. Weather conditions were not too bad, allowing the fire to be quickly contained.

In northeast VIC, near Corryong, an 80-hectare fire continues to burn out of control in rugged bushland near the Murray River. The weather is hot and dry, but not especially windy. However, the fire is burning in rough terrain, and this may make the winds more erratic and dangerous. No private properties or homes are threatened. A satellite image from the same overpass as above is shown below.

Good news on KI

As of this evening, all four of the fire complexes on KI have been contained. The fires began on 6 December from lightning strikes, and have been burning for nine days. Approximately 90 000 ha has been burnt.

“It is a great milestone to have the Kangaroo Island fires contained”, said Rob Sandford, CFS State Coordinator.

“Although these fires are contained, there is still fire activity within control lines“, said Rob.

“Firefighters will remain on the island for several days mopping up, blacking out and patrolling the perimeter to ensure the area is safe.”

Here is the link to the CFS press release.

The cool change materialized today as expected, which allowed fire fighters to gain the upper hand. Although fire dangers remain high tomorrow, generally cooler weather should allow for greater control to be established over the fire.

An update on the KI update

Right after I submitted the last KI post, the new stats on the fires came through. Here they are, from the 2235 CFS media release

Chase Fire (Flinders Chase)

Size: 51 000 hectares approx

Significant fire behaviour was reported on this fire today.

The western section of this fire breached the control line and moved south westerly in inaccessible terrain, and breached West Bay Road west of Rocky River.

The southern section of this fire has breached the control line and is yet to reach Sanderson Track control line. Firefighting efforts on asset protection in the Rocky River area have been successful.

The northern section of the Chase fire is progressing towards Cape Borda and has not crossed the Playford Highway.

Solly Fire (Western River)

Size: 3 100 hectares approx

Crew are continuing with blacking out and patrolling perimeters.

D’estrees Fire

Size: 13 000 hectares approx

Significant fire behaviour was reported on this fire today.

Crew have been responding to flare ups, and will continue patrolling and blacking out along control lines.

Backburning will continue tonight.

KI fires still going

Fires continue to burn on KI more than a week after their ignition by lightning. Of most concern at this time is the Flinders Chase fire, although 2 of the 3 other fires were reported as burning today as well. Today proved to be another dangerous fire day, with 'very high' fire danger ratings, approaching extreme, on the island. High to very high fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow as well, before a change moves through in the afternoon.

The image shows the so-called 721 false colour imagery from the MODIS instrument on board the Terra satellite, extracted from the MODIS Rapid Response Australia5 subset. It was acquired at 0105 UTC, about 1135 local time. The image is quite striking. The burnt area in Flinders Chase is quite large, with open flames quite prominent on the southern flank. The light blue color is the thick low-level smoke plume moving off toward the south. Compare with the similar image, from the early days of the fire, to see how it has evolved over time.

The Earth Observatory Natural Hazards site also posted a true colour image of the fires from the 12 December which shows a large smoke plume trailing off to the west.

From this 0645 CFS update

Due to the significance of these fires and the deployment of considerable South Australian resources, incident management personnel and firefighters have been drafted from Victoria, NSW, Queensland and Western Australia and are providing great support to SA crews.

Progress on building control lines ahead of expected deteriorating weather conditions today and tomorrow has continued although several outbreaks in the Flinders Chase fire have caused some concern.

Flinders Chase fire Back burning continued overnight in several locations however some control lines were breached with crews working hard to establish control lines this morning. Area burnt 21,760 ha

Western River (Solly) fire The fire was patrolled continually over night.
Area burnt 3,050 ha

D'Estrees Bay fire There were some flare-ups on the southern boundary. Area burnt 10,924 ha.

Central Fire (Vivonne Bay) Area burnt 5,594 ha.

More on KI fires

The fires on Kangaroo Island have continued to burn throughout the day. Over 300 firefighters and numerous aircraft are at work on the blazes. Firefighters from interstate may be required to assist in putting out the fires. There are 4 large fire burning at this time.

Below is the clearest satellite image to date on the fires. AS usual, it was extracted from the imagery available at the NASA MODIS Rapid Response website. It was captured around noon local time on Saturday 8 December. Clouds were over much of the island during this morning's overpasses.

Here is the latest information on the fires, from Sunday's Country Fire Service update (issued 4 pm)...

The fires have been listed as the Solly Fire, Destrees Fire, Central Fire and Chase fire.

Solly Fire

Western River Conservation Park Has burnt an area of 2140 ha at 12:00 am Midday, the fire has mainly been burning in the Western River Wilderness area and Western River Road. There are a number of assets in the vicinity of this fire that have resources allocated for asset protection.

Vivonne Bay (Central)

Has burnt an area of 5600 ha and is now contained on all fronts. Firefighters are continuing to work in the area, mopping up and patrolling and will remain in the area until the 16th December.

Destrees Fire – Cape Gantheaume Wilderness Protection Area.

Has burnt an area of 9400 ha. Access to the south eastern parts of the park has been difficult. Crews are currently working on several hot spots and are undertaking back burning operations. The community of Destree’s is still at risk.

Flinders Chase Fire

Has burnt an area of 4100 ha. The fire is running in a north easterly direction parallel to West End Highway. It has also crossed West End Highway and is burning in the Conservation Park. Crews have been undertaking asset protection. Some back burning has been undertaken west along South Coast Road from Tandanya Wilderness Lodge. The plan is to conduct back burning operations along West End Highway and there are considerations for this to be done along Playford Highway.

KI fires turn deadly

The fires which began across SA yesterday have claimed a life on Kangaroo Island. The Sydney Morning Herald reports:

Late Thursday, the body of a 22-year-old man was found in his burnt out truck near Vivonne Bay on the island's south coast.

Police said it was unclear if the man died in a crash or from the flames.

A team of forensic investigators are providing a report for the coroner.

SafeWork SA said the man was believed to be working with his father after being contracted by the CFS to haul a bulldozer as part of the firefighting efforts.

A SafeWork spokesman said the death would be treated and investigated as a workplace incident.

Five fires remain uncontrolled this evening on KI. Since 1330 yesterday, 14 fires have been reported. Four have been brought under control, and the others have merged to produce the 5 still burning. The five fires are at Flinders Chase, Western River Conservation Park, Riverleas, Vivonne Bay and Cape Gantheaume, with the first two list being of the most concern. No economic interests are threatened at this time.

The NASA Terra MODIS image of KI from earlier today is shown above (extracted the MODIS Rapid Response page). It is a '721' image highlighting the burn scars and areas of vegetation. It is stitched together from two separate overpasses. 4 of the 5 noted fires are apparent. The peach color likely represents open flame.

Other fires that started yesterday, including the Nullarbor and Yorke Peninsula fires were also still burning.

Widespread bushfires in SA

SA has seen widespread fire activity today. Multiple news articles from ABC, linked below. Unfortunately, clouds have covered much of the state today, and the Aqua satellite is temporarily out of order, so not much in the way of spiffy satellite imagery. The Sentinel website has also been a bit dodgy today, and of NAFI is for the north, so...

• Nullarbor travellers warned of bushfire

Three fires are burning on South Australia's far west coast.

The third fire noted in the news item above is obscured by clouds. It was further off the west, closer to the WA border. This image was captured after the change passed through (see below), as the smoke plumes are streaming off to the NE...

• Bushfire threat near Naracoorte

More than 30 Country Fire Service (CFS) firefighters are tackling a blaze three kilometres north of Naracoorte in the south-east of South Australia.

• Lightning sparks blazes after day of SA heat

Fires have been reported at O'Halloran Hill in Adelaide's south, along with Happy Valley and further south again at Aldinga, McLaren Vale and Myponga.

A grass fire has been burning near Foul Bay on Lower Yorke Peninsula.

The Country Fire Service (CFS) says it is near the Hundred Line, Happy Valley and South Coast Roads, heading south toward Foul Bay.

The CFS has dozens of firefighters tackling the blaze and says about 300 hectares have been burnt.

Another fire has been burning near Goldsmith Road near Edithburgh but the CFS says the danger there has eased (as at 5:30pm ACDT).

The CFS also has crews battling a string of fires sparked by lightning on Kangaroo Island, including one in the Western River Conservation Park.

• Crews battle bushfires across SA

South Australia's Country Fire Service (CFS) is turning its attention to several bushfires burning on Fleurieu Peninsula.

Crews are still attending to fires at Edithburgh and Warooka on the Yorke Peninsula.

The CFS is also tonight reporting widespread smoke across much of southeastern SA. This is primarily due to12 confirmed fires on Kangaroo Island.

The entire state was under a Total Fire Ban. The synoptic situation was a classic SE Australia high fire danger day, reminiscent of the Ash Wednesday fires. Maximum temperatures throughout were in the mid-to upper 30s, minimum relative humidities were 10% and below. These conditions were associated with a frontal system moving from the west. Winds ahead of the front were northerly and gusty, giving extreme fire dangers throughout the state. The air behind the front was considerably cooler, with strong southwesterly winds. A strong wind change adds danger for firefighters.

To highlight the sharpness of the front: In Ceduna at 1200, the temperature was 38.4 with 9% RH and northerly winds at 50 km/h, gusts to 70km/h. Half an hour later, the temperature was 25.0, with 59% RH and WSW winds about the same speed and gustiness.

The main threats appear to be easing with the cool change.

Southeast bushfires update

In TAS, the South West Conservation Area fire has grown during the day, having now burnt 2 400 ha. Smoke from the fires affected Hobart today, as seen in the photo. Rain and cooler conditions are expected overnight and tomorrow, hopefully allowing firefighters to gain control over the blaze.

The Little Desert in western VIC are now burning within containment lines. It has burnt 15 990 ha. The Lascelles-Wathe fire is still listed as 'Going' with 4 000 ha burnt. Conditions tomorrow are expected to be cooler, but winds are forecast to remain strong. Moderate to High fire dangers remain.

A fire in the Riverland region of SA, the Bruno Bay fire, has been burning for a few days. It has burnt more than 900 ha and has now been brought under control. The earlier expected threat to nearby towns did not materialize today, and the danger has likely passed.

The Prill Park-Euston bushfire in southern NSW has also been contained.

SE Australia fire weather: 15 Oct 2007

Large portions of SE Australia are expected to see dangerous fire weather conditions tomorrow.

Conditions tomorrow are forecast to be hot and windy across much of the area. A approaching frontal system is expected to bring temperature in the upper-20s and low-30s, with strong, gusty NW winds. A change to a cooler SW winds is expected in the evening. This situation is reminiscent of the classic fire weather synoptic pattern across this region.

'High' to 'Very High' dangers are expected over much of the region, and fire bans in some areas. As of 2200 Sunday night (14^th), Fire weather warnings have been issued in

• South Australia: Eastern Eyre Peninsula, West Coast

• New South Wales: Northern Riverina, Southern Riverina, South West

In Victoria, no official fire weather warnings have been issued, but the Bureau did issue a “non-routine” outlook for fire weather due to expected conditions. At Melbourne AP, fire danger is forecast to briefly touch 'extreme'.

The most extreme weather looks to be focused on the regions near the Murray River in both NSW and VIC, and on the Eyre Peninsula in SA, although the potential for bushfires with dangerous fire behaviour exists across most of the southeast portion of the country.

Early SA fire bans

For tomorrow, 2 days before the beginning of spring...

• South Australia on bushfire alert – The Age

South Australia is bracing for a day of high bushfire danger tomorrow two days before the official start of spring.

...

"It is possible that there will be a number of districts subject to a total fire ban on Thursday, particularly where there is scrub or forested areas across the state," said CFS deputy state coordinator Malim Watts.

"On a day like Thursday there is potential for burn-offs to spread out of control and escalate into larger scale bushfires.

"Fires can also rekindle days or even weeks after burn-offs have occurred so it's important to continue monitoring the burnt area."

Mr Watts said South Australia experienced winds and warm weather on Tuesday and several fires began on the Eyre Peninsula from burn-offs.

From this news item from the ABC, quoted from a BoM forecaster in Adelaide...

"One thing we probably haven't seen in all this before is a fire ban for the Mount Lofty Ranges but we have one for tomorrow," he said.

"The highest temperature recorded in Adelaide is 29 [for August], we're going for 28 tomorrow so we're within one degree of our extremes."

The possibility of fire bans for today was noted in the media (and the forecasters!) a few days ago...

Also from the Bureau...

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT - BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
SOUTH AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

District Fire Danger Ratings for Thursday.
Issued at 5:10 pm on Wednesday, 29 August 2007

FIRE BAN DISTRICT         FIRE DANGER RATING
Northwest Pastoral        Not applicable
Northeast Pastoral        Not applicable
West Coast                Extreme in bushland areas 
Eastern Eyre Peninsula    Extreme in bushland areas 
Lower Eyre Peninsula      Extreme in bushland areas
Flinders                  Very High in bushland areas
Mid North                 Very High in bushland areas 
Mount Lofty Ranges        Extreme in bushland and forest areas 
Adelaide Metropolitan     Very High in bushland areas 
Yorke Peninsula           Very High in bushland areas  
Kangaroo Island           Very High in bushland and forest areas 
Riverland                 Very High in bushland areas 
Murraylands               Very High in bushland areas
Upper South East          Very High in bushland areas 
Lower South East          Very High in bushland and forest areas 

There are similar rumblings about an early fire season being reported for western Victoria, as well.

it's a good thing the climate isn't changing <ha!>, or else we'd really be in trouble!

Ash Wednesday Anniversary

Today is the anniversary of the Ash Wednesday bushfires, when 75 people in VIC and SA were killed. Fires again started in both states today, but nothing like the intensity of the fires on this day in 1983.

In SA, 160 Ha of Ngarkat Conservation Park was set ablaze from lightning.

Several fires have been started over VIC, ignited by lightning from the thunderstorms which have occured there over the past 2 days. As of tonight, one of these fires is threatening the community of Yarra Junction, east of Melbourne, with embers expected overnight. DSE reports lightning started 40 fires in VIC today. More storms are expected tomorrow afternon.