VIctorian Bushfires: 23 Feb

Several new bushfires started and existing ones flared today, as another day of extreme fire danger was observed in southern Victoria. A total fire ban was in place across most of the state as a hot, breezy NW flow brought extreme fire weather conditions (FFDI ~60) to the area. A late-afternoon cool change and wind shift exacerbated concerns.

The image below was captured just before four this afternoon (23 Feb 2009) from the MODIS instrument NASA Aqua satellite using the True Color channels. This image is extracted from the 'Australia6' subset. Many fires are immediately noticeable to the east of Melbourne. As of this evening, many of these fires are reported on the DSE website (link on sidebar) as 'Going'. At the time of the image, the change was just approaching Melbourne (as evidenced by the band of cumulus across Port Phillip bay...) and fire weather was at its worse, with NW winds in evidence in much of the image.

The individual fires are labeled, and links to the summarized news stories are provided with the labels below.

• W: Earlier this afternoon, residents in Warburton were facing evacuation as the fores were projected to threaten the town after the expected wind change.

• B:A fire in the Dandenong Ranges to the southeast of Melbourne destroyed a house in the outer suburb of Melbourne, Belgrave Heights.

• Y: A bushfire at Yarram, in Gippsland which started earlier today promises to be a long fight.

• M; A fire near Muskville has burnt over 2 000 ha during the course of today.

• WP: (no link). Wilson's Prom fire has burnt ~21 000 and has been alight for two weeks. Several fires are apparent and a tremendous smoke plume is present.

• 7: (no link). The continuation of one of the deadly fires of 7 Feb. Apparently not threatening any economic values at this time.

The current forecast would suggest that Friday (27 Feb) will be another extreme fire weather day...

Victorian Bushfires

Here are some stories regarding the Victorian bushfires of 7 Feb 2009, the worst bushfire loss of life in the nation's history:

• Over 130 lives lost.

• The towns of Kinglake and Marysville, northeast of Melbourne, have been devastated, burnt to the ground

• Over 700 houses have been lost across the state, 550 in Kinglake alone.

In addition to the devastating fires to the northeast of Melbourne,other damaging bushfires were seen in other areas of the state. Fires in eastern Gippsland have been burning for some time, flaring spectacularly in late January. A bushfire near Horsham in the western part of the state burned over 3000 ha and seven homes. Several bushfires burned near Bendigo in the north, destroying over 69 houses. Widespread wildfire activity was also observed in NSW, including one in excess of 1000 ha in size. Many of these fires continued to burn through Monday.

These fires come in hand with what is in all likelihood the most extreme day of weather observed in Victoria. Afternoon temperatures in vicinity of Melbourne were at all-time record highs, in excess of 46 C. With relative humidity below 10% and strong, gusty NW winds, fire danger indicies were extreme, amongst the highest on record. In the past, days with this level of fire danger have often meant disaster, with fatalities and/or catastrophic house loss.

The first image is a MODIS 721 false colour image. The image, extracted from the NASA Rapid Response subset site was captured on the 7^th from the Aqua satellite at just before 1600 local time. The pixel size in 250 m. *For a sense of scale the distance between the Kinglake (k) and Marysville (M) on the map is about 50 km. Locations are approximate)

The fires (hotspots) as detected on IR are marked with red outlines. The pink colour inside represents open flame in this instance. These areas are relatively large, indicative of the intensity and size of the fires.

Quite extensive smoke plumes are also apparent, extending some 100s of km in some cases. The brighter white found inside the more diffuse grey of the smoke likely represents pyrocumulus, fire-induced clouds. (The true colour image from the same time is useful...)The smoke plumes from the fires were also visible on the BoM radars. The image below shows the radar returns from around the same time. The different fires are discernable by looking at the apparent source of the plume. Later in the day, the plumes returned much stronger echoes and became more continuous,

Australian Bushfire Activity: 31 Jan – 10 Mar 2008

In which I awaken from my torpor and post here...

The images below are the last 4 10-day hotspot composites, extracted from the NASA MODIS Rapid Response Fire Mapping archive. The dates on the four images are 31 Jan to 9 Feb, 10-19 Feb, 20-29 Feb and 1-10 March.

Thanks to a ripper of a monsoon burst across the north and La Nina-fortified rains across much of the east, fire activity has been quite low. Even the parts which haven't received copious rainfall (e.g. SA) have relatively quiet, with no major fires noted. This continues a trend that was noted in the previous national update.

Throughout the 40 days, the centre of action has been in southwestern WA. This is particularly true during the first two periods. In general, these fires are widespread, moderately sized and short lived. A large fire burnt at least 15 000 ha south of Coolgardie. Highway closures due to bushfire were reported in the Wheatbelt and Goldfields regions, the latter not too distant from where a tragic bushfire burned in late-December. Some deliberately lit bushfires were ignited in the Perth Hills.

During the first period, there are a few widely-scattered hotspots throughout the north. In the middle two periods -- the height of the active monsoon -- the region is almost devoid of hotspots. AS the monsoon winds down, some hotspots return.

There are a few hotspots visible in Tasmania, particularly along the northern coast. The number of hotspots is likely not representative of total fire activity – Tasmania is cloudy quite often and so the hotspots are obscured. A 270-ha fire was noted in NW TAS. A scrub fire threatened homes in Hobart.

Other states also reported major fires, particularly on the 18 February. In SA, a 2500-ha fire was started by lightning in a remote area near Minnipa. In southern NSW, a 900-ha fire was noted near Mathoura, near the VIC border. During early March, several fires have been noted in the greater Adelaide area, including at Gumeracha and Myponga.

During the last period, there has been an apparent uptick in fire activity, particularly in VIC. The lack of media coverage leads me to suspect these are controlled burning operation being carried out. [Uncontrolled bushfires in the Victoria Alps, two hours from Melbourne would make some news somewhere...Articles like this also confirm this notion]. This period has also sen hot, dry conditions build up over much of the SE, creating a widespread area of extreme fire danger and fire bans. Adelaide and SA has borne the brunt of much of this heating, setting records for most consecutive days above 35 for any capital city.

Australia Bushfire Activity: 11-30 Jan 2008

Below are shown the previous two 10-day hotspot composite maps for Australia from the NASA Rapid Response Global Fire Maps page. The dates are 11-20 January and 21-30 January.

Overall, the previous 3 weeks or so have seen relatively little fire activity. Compared to the same time last year (11-20 Jan), fire activity in the eastern portion of the country is *greatly* reduced, while fire activity in NW WA (Pilbara) is greater. Climate-wise, the reduction in fire activity in the east is typical behaviour of a moderate-to-strong La Nina. This continues a trend from the previous national update.

During the first period, major fires were noted in Tasmania and WA. In Tasmania, major bushfires were reported in the northeast portion of the state: west of St Helens and another near Bellingham. In SW WA, a large bushfire was reported in Fitzgerald River National Park near Hopetoun. It was initially started by lightning and burned in excess of 40 000 ha. In VIC, the fire near Ballarat noted here earlier is visible.

During the second period, the eastern Australia as a whole has been relatively quiet. There is an apparent small increase in the number of hotspots detected in SE QLD. It is unclear with this data as to whether this is due to a decrease in general cloud cover over the region during the second period or a real phenomenon. Regardless, any activity seems relatively insignificant. A few fires have been reported is TAS, as well. In southern WA, a large fire not noted by the media in the national parks to the west of Albany. Hotspots first noted on 24^th, but the fire burned fiercely on the 27^th, judging by the smoke plume in the MODIS image for the day.

The peak region of fire activity is found in a broad swath of WA extended from the NT border across to the Pilbara. During the second period, fire activity is seen extending down in the the Great Sandy Desert region as well. Most of this fire activity is sporadic. Small fires (small for the north, anyway...) which last for two or three days before extinguishing. Reviewing the MODIS subsets shows that there were several distinct periods when fire behaviour was observed. Early in the first period (10-14 Jan), fires were quite numerous throughout the Pilbara. Fire activity then was greatly reduced for 4 or 5 days, gradually become more widespread starting the desert regions and extending westward and southward. The second period has seen several days of activity, but in the Pilbara, this fire activity stopped around the 30^th.

The La Nina looks set to continue for the next several months. In general, this sort-of low level behaviour should continue. Tasmania in particular remains dry, as does SA. Parts of VIC have seen above-average rainfall during January, but much of this fell on one day...there is still the potential for significant fire activity in all of these regions.

Bushfires today in SE Australia

Several bushfires have been noted in SE Australia today, Fires were noted in northern Tasmania, the Adelaide Hills and northeast Victoria.

The largest fire is the Tasmanian blaze. It has been contained as of this evening, after burning near 2500 ha. The weather isn't too bad as far as fire activity goes. Temperatures were near 20, relative humidity was high and winds weren't particularly strong. Fuel loads may be quite high though, allowing for a more intense fire. An Aqua MODIS image of the area from this afternoon is shown below.

A fire also ignited this afternoon in the Adelaide Hills, near Belair. People were evacuated and water bombers were called into to bring the blaze under control. 27 ha were burnt. Weather conditions were not too bad, allowing the fire to be quickly contained.

In northeast VIC, near Corryong, an 80-hectare fire continues to burn out of control in rugged bushland near the Murray River. The weather is hot and dry, but not especially windy. However, the fire is burning in rough terrain, and this may make the winds more erratic and dangerous. No private properties or homes are threatened. A satellite image from the same overpass as above is shown below.